Emergent patterns in nature and society

ESA: Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene

Last year I was supposed to present this talk at ESA100 but a delayed visa made me miss the opportunity to share the main results of my PhD with the ecological society of America. This year and with the support of the PlosONE early career travel awards, I’m presenting my talk Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene at ESA101 in Fort Lauderdale. Here are the slides and the abstract of my talk.

 

Abstract:

Human action is driving worldwide change in ecosystems. While some of these changes have been gradual, others have led to surprising, large and persistent ecological regime shifts. Such shifts challenge ecological management and governance because they substantially alter the availability of ecosystems services, while being difficult to predict and reverse. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases or types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their main drivers, and most common impacts on ecosystem services. We use network analysis to demonstrate that regime shifts share clusters of direct and indirect drivers that shape opportunities for management.

While climatic change and food production are common drivers of regime shifts, drivers’ diversity undermine blue print solutions. Drivers co-occurrence vary with management scale and ecosystem type. Subcontinental regime shifts have fewer drivers related to climate; aquatic regime shifts share more drivers, often related to nutrient inputs and food production; while terrestrial regime shifts have a higher diversity of drivers making their management more context dependent. Given this variety of drivers, avoiding regime shifts requires simultaneously managing multiple types of global change forces across scales. However, there are substantial opportunities for increasing resilience to global drivers, such as climate change, by managing local drivers. Such coordinated actions are essential to reduce the risk of ecological surprises in the Anthropocene. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.

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